Can we expect Boris Johnson to deliver BREXIT – probably NOT [at best it’s BRINO]?

When Boris Johnson stood for the Tory leadership in June, he did so on a platform of ‘Theresa May’s deal is dead and the UK would leave the EU on 31 October’, didn’t he?

Yep, it may have secured him a landslide victory, but the news on the wires is that to all intents and purposes, his negotiations with the EU on his ‘do or die pledge to leave on time, involve nothing more than a reheated dish of May’s totally unacceptable Withdrawal agreement that has been rejected in Parliament three times.

[Remember it was the same Boris Johnson who resigned in July last year as Foreign Secretary, the 3rd highest Office of State. saying Theresa May’s plan ‘sticks in the throat ‘and that the UK was headed “for the status of a colony”]

His vehement demand that “our friends (?) in Ireland, and in Brussels and around the EU” completely ditch the anti-democratic backstop [which would forever keep the UK in the same customs territory as the EU, and Northern Ireland closely tied to EU regulations] and “do a deal without checks at the Irish border” has been replaced by yet another dire concession of replacing all that by isolating and marooning Norther Ireland in the EU Single Market ad infinitum – resulting in the need for new customs checks of being in a different custom’s union. Oh yes, the obtuse EU won’t accept just that, so you can expect, just like May’s, Johnson’s further capitulations, can’t you?

Apart from NOT having a genuine bottom line, May’s biggest negotiating mistake was allowing the EU to make the Irish border an issue and one which indeed eventually caused the negotiations to founder – surely she knew the obvious truth that the rest of Europe didn’t give a shit about the Irish, just as the Irish Republic don’t give a damn about the Good Friday agreement which was just a vehicle to get them a long way to an United Ireland

A supposed strong PM Johnson replacing an undoubtable weak one of May, would seem to have achieved little since Boris, whether by his own mistakes or not, has got himself in exactly the same set of circumstances as Theresa, hasn’t he? As feared, the electorate have indeed got a Theresa May mark2 Prime Minister, eh?

Yes, his proposals mean though we would have legally left the cartel, Britain is kept locked in the EU for ANOTHER 2 years, making a total of over 5 years total since we voted Leave, we then pay them a king’s ransom of dozens of billions in return, and when they unilaterally can change the rules we have to follow in ways that harm us without any say from us whatsoever, plus we will not be able to strike new trade agreements to gain the benefits of being outside the EU, either?

We will still have no ongoing trade deal with Brussels and there is no way that they will give us an acceptable one as they hold all the cards while they are in control – France and Spain will demand the continuing right to steal our fish, Spain is determined to make the UK handover Gibraltar to them without the consent of its people, the Republic of Ireland [that already gets away with calling itself simply Ireland] will succeed in its quest to take over NI without the agreement of its Protestant population [declining as the Catholics breed], and doubtless others will insist the continuation of free movement, all as just part of the price? The only way the UK can get a fair-trade deal with the EU is a ‘clean break’ BREXIT followed by negotiations as an independent country with ‘currently’ common standards, surely?

Moreover, Johnson equally is heading a government that doesn’t control parliament and doesn’t command a majority – only more so. His authority as Prime Minister is undermined by a Commons Speaker intent on thwarting BREXIT and using his controlling role to alter operational procedures to sideline the Executive, avoid parliament working normally, and permit the diehard Remainers to control the Order paper. Once more a PM has failed to stop parliament passing a law forcing them to ask the EU for an extension – this time even worse as it is the EU that is allowed to decide on the length, eh? Once again due to that folly the UK sat naked at the table, allowing the EU the inestimable advantage of knowing we could not walk away and would have to accept any crumbs offered – the Benn surrender bill was fully intended to have such an impact with an ultimate objective of getting BREXIT cancelled altogether

As any diplomate will tell you, Britain’s negotiations with Brussels have been nothing short of a shambles since June 23 2016

Like May, Johnson is in the same position of being corralled into an inescapable public commitment to exiting the EU on a certain date, so has to abandon all principles and agree to anything the EU proposes in order to get a deal on the table, doesn’t he? Even if he achieves such a result, he then has to get ‘immediate’ parliamentary approval which means he has to employ the same strategy as his predecessor by standing at the Dispatch box threatening MPs with the same phraseology as May ‘this is the only deal in town and if you don’t take it NOW then there will be no BREXIT!’

Now, Johnson may well get away with it because prominent Eurosceptics and leading figures of the ERG are on-board – like Jacob Rees-Mogg, seduced into government as Commons leader, who now claims MPs will back a deal to get it through parliament even though the PM is yet to secure any agreement from Brussels

Because of his full-blooded vows, Johnson knows full well that his political career is finished if Britain doesn’t leave the EU on time this Halloween. Equally, the Conservative Party recognises that it electorally is a dead duck in the water and will be for a decade if it doesn’t meet its EU Referendum obligation before the next election – that’s why there’s such desperation to take any path however unacceptable, towards the destination of a so called ‘deal’, which isn’t one as it only deals with withdrawal and not a trade deal – that is the only basis for an ongoing relationship, isn’t it?.

It is extremely difficult for us outsiders to comprehend what hand Johnson is playing because he and his cabinet continue to claim the Country WILL leave on this October AND will obey the law – two things that would seem to be mutually exclusive if there is no agreement with the EU, eh?

Do the Government have a Houdini type escape plan for the Benn bill extension straightjacket, do you think?

The other non-congruity is the fact that the dominant government force of Johnson’s Chief of Staff Dominic Cummings, who ran the official  Leave campaign in the Referendum, is an ultra-committed BREXITEER so it is difficult to see how he could stomach the deal that is being mooted, isn’t it?

 

[If ‘Boris Johnson’ dishes-up BRINO (BRexit In Name Only) he can forget about winning a General Election for the Conservatives, as Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party will cut massive swathes from the Tory vote as well as scupper Labour in their heartlands]

 

 

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