Anyone with any nous just knew that big-talking Donald Trump was heading for a fall in thinking that he could meet-up and parley with Kim Jong-un in June and come away with an agreement on denuclearisation that would be meaningful and stick, didn’t they?
Afterwards, Trump expressed such confidence in the diplomatic process he had set in place, to declared that HE had solved the longstanding problem of a nuclear North Korea.
[The United States STILL has a plan that would lead to the dismantling of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs IN A YEAR]
Now not only was a ‘head to head’ meeting with an American President an amazing diplomatic and political coup for the North Korean Supreme Leader [the first of the Kim dynasty in 3-generations (over nearly 75 years) to be given that kind of undeserved recognition], but it became a ‘negotiation’ between equals on the World stage from a North Korean perspective and its public acclaim – exactly as Kim had envisaged, eh?. Moreover, Kim won hands down as far as those in the know assess, as he only expressed aspirations, but made no ‘solid ‘agreement, no tangible, nor verifiable commitments, to give up production of nuclear material, let alone surrender the existing stockpile of it, or nuclear weapons, and furthermore it would appear that the pressing, critical and immediate danger of his long-range missile delivery capability wasn’t even discussed never mind reined-in, development stunted and facilities abandoned [ you can fully expect Kim to be urgently developing a submarine platform missile delivery system so that the US can no longer attack North Korean launch sites, can’t you].
Despite getting a zilch in return Trump also provided 2 massive ‘give-aways’ to Kim.
First, he cancelled the imminent crucial annual joint military exercises with South Korea (deterrent demonstrations of force that have been conducted for nearly 50 years) and he suspended future ones.
Second, he agreed to seek to eventually close down US military bases in South Korea and bring troops home
These two actions have enhanced Kim’s both standing and power in the region, while scaring the shit out of the South Koreans, as well as the US’s Western allies.
We mere observers all expected NOTHING of significance to result in the Singapore summit aftermath and indeed it DIDN’T, did it? No, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the man charged with responsibility by Trump to progress the North Korean expressed ‘ambition’ to progress towards denuclearisation, simply met with diplomatic stonewalling [exactly as has happened in over 25years to the previous Presidents Carter, Clinton, and Bush].
Furthermore, the International Atomic Energy Agency say there is evidence that strongly suggests that North Korea has continued to develop its nuclear facilities and capabilities in recent months [just as some of us had predicted, eh?] – that included major expansion of a key missile-manufacturing site as well as continuing to produce fissile material for weapons. Hardly surprisingly then, that Trump pulled the plug on such stalled progress and abruptly promptly cancelled last month’s Pompeo revisit to North Korea planned to progress matters.
Now, while Kim has successfully bought time with his move on Trump, he hasn’t yet obtained his ultimate goal of getting-in US aid and sanctions removed, but you can be certain that he will be pursuing that objective while surreptitiously retaining an ‘effective’ nuclear capability – even if he visibly gives up a proportion of his arsenal to do so.
So it’s in that vein that Kim arranged a new Inter-Korean summit meeting in Pyongyang this last week with the South’s President Moon Jae-in [who he clasped in an act of false-friendship]. That was the third such meeting this year and Moon is understandably desperately attempting to normalise relations with the North,and defuse the threat and real risk of resumption of war.
Kim has used the summit to propose to Trump a deal by which he would shut down a major nuclear site complex (Nyongbyon) IF America takes RECIPROCOL action [we can only guess what that actually means, or what North Korea actually wants – AID provision, SANCTIONS removal, TROOPS recall (30thousand), ANTI-MISSILE SYSTEM withdrawal, PEACE TREATY formally ending Korean war (1953), DIPLOMATIC RECOGNITION with liaison mission in Pyongyang, CONVENTIONAL ARMS reductions, KOREAN REUNIFICATION with Kim in control?]
You can bet your bottom dollar that naive Trump, with his unshakeable self-belief that he is a walk-on-water maker of the DEAL, will soon resurrect his diplomatic dialogue with the devious Kim, accept at face value the proposed ‘start’ to North Korean denuclearisation, and provide the quid pro quo yet-to-be demanded by Kim [likely though to include US Aid and significant sanction reduction].
Somehow Trump maintains that he and Kim have a solid relationship, but nevertheless he must have learnt a curt lesson from the latest and ongoing North Korean duplicity since Kim made commitments to him personally just 2 months ago, surely? As well, he needs to heed the examples of the North’s repeated violations of past diplomatic agreements with the US, which indeed put in place the deep-seated distrust of the North on all political sides in Washington.
Not least, Trump needs to recognise the unquestionable truth that it is solely the pressure from the current UN sanctions that has brought Kim and Pyongyang to the negotiating brink once again, isn’t it? Furthermore, as a de-facto nuclear power, North Korea and its leader will NEVER give that up voluntarily, will they? Oh yes, Kim will be prepared to deplete a bit his nuclear arsenal [perhaps he already has 50 plus nuclear bombs, eh?] but US intelligence officials know that North Korea does not intend to fully surrender its nuclear stockpile [and is already making preparations to deceive the US about the number of nuclear warheads it has as well not disclosing all its nuclear fissile material facilities]
[The Syrian military of dictator ‘Bashar al-Assad’ used banned chemical weapons against the population in 2013 – confirmed by the UN. The international outcry resulted in OPCW inspections of Syria’s declared chemical weapons arsenal and actual destruction was completed in 2014. Nevertheless, Assad had been able to hide some including nerve agents so continued to use them in his civil war – what does that tell us? International verification of and destruction of such weapons is uttery unreliable when the holder is a tyrant, eh?]
Just remember, Kim is the ‘insecure’ despot head of a secretive oppressive impoverished rogue state, and the third member of the Kim family ‘divine’ dynasty to rule North Korea by gruesome force and control through a strict personality cult.
He imposes a regime devoid of ALL human rights, radios are illegal, Western movies are banned, certain music is prohibited, and it is a country where even filming ANYTHING is treason. Unbelievably, a full 1% of the North Korean population are political prisoners. Citizens may get access only to the country’s own intranet and no mobile phones can dial into or out of the country, plus there is also no Internet connection. People not only need special permission to travel abroad (only granted to the few), but they also need special permission to travel around their own country. North Korea is one of the most militarised nations on Earth
Kim is a ruthless murderous dictator, who suppresses any ‘potential’ dissent with prison camps, and brutally eliminates any ‘perceived’ opponent to secure his position, killing at will family members [like his eldest half-brother, uncle, aunt, and two cousins], the military [like the army vice-minister], or government officials [like family who served as ambassadors to Malaysia and Cuba, deputy-prime minister, defence minister, agricultural minister, and education official]. It is estimated that up to 350 are dead already.
[Mr President, that is the kind of man ‘Kim Jong-un’ is, and is the one who you are dealing with and trusting with the World’s future –remember also that DICTATORS DON’T GIVE-UP POWER].