STILL STANDING: Michael Gove: Andrea Leadsom: Theresa May
BLOG CURRENT FORCAST: Theresa May v Andrea Leadsom
[Red = voted Remain Blue = voted Leave]
Well, well, well, the outcome of the first ballot for the Conservative leadership produced the expected, though totally unsatisfactory result, with ‘remain’ backing candidate Theresa May’s star rising well above the rest into the clear skies.
Sad boy hopeful Liam Fox’s bid proved to be simply hapless as predicted, so he was eliminated in ignominy, while Stephen Crabb fell on his sword having achieved his future candidacy image intention. Both of them say they now back May, but Fox’s supporters are likely to be of BREXIT origin so those votes won’t follow his, will they?
The problem now for BREXIT thought is that its candidates Michael Gove & Andrea Leadsom will split the vote which means that they are together currently mustering only 35% of the vote compared to May’s 50%. Whatever one gets ahead will therefore not enter the final hustings with an adequate credible support of MPs – that would prove to be a poor starting position at local constituency level where the final decision will be taken, don’t you think?
The May camp are pretty desperate for Gove to take second spot in the second/final ballot, as they are confident that he will now get short shrift out in the sticks after scuppering their idol Boris Johnson [you see Gove made a grave tactical error when announcing his candidacy of unnecessarily denigrating his opponent surely– if he had not done so, Johnson would have been taken out by MPs rather than Gove gaining an unhelpful reputation as a ruthless knifeman?).
It is crystal clear that May already has fifty votes she doesn’t now need, so she could with a bit of skulduggery donate them all to Gove to take him ahead of Leadsom and into the final battle – she would do it if she thought she would get away with it, wouldn’t you say? [Some claim that she was at it already in the first ballot, eh?]
Regarding the BREXIT front, their best bet would be for Gove to still stand but to work for Leadsom to get say 40% of the votes which is the kind of boost that she needs to face-up to May when appealing to the member associations [Gove won’t do it of course, as he naively thinks he still has a chance of the crown – dream-on?].
Surprisingly perhaps, about fifty MPs didn’t bother to cast their votes – what game are they playing and who will get those votes next time, eh?
[Tomorrow evening we will know if Leadsom has made it through, and hence whether or not BREXIT’s future is likely to land in the hands of ‘non-believer’ May or advocate Leadsom].