STANDING:         Stephen Crabb: Liam Fox: Michael Gove: Andrea Leadsom: Theresa May

BLOG CURRENT FORCAST: Theresa May v Andrea Leadsom

[Red = voted Remain            Blue = voted Leave]

The result of first ballot of Tory MPs for the Leadership contest will be known this evening after 6pm (voting started before lunch today).

Without doubt, the one who will immerge as top dog will be Theresa May, and you don’t need to have a crystal ball to know that, do you? No, so many MPs have already ‘committed’ to supporting her that she will undeniably walk into the final pair of hopefuls to be offered to the small cohort of Conservative Party members that will bestow the crown of the Country’s next Prime Minister on someone’s head, eh? You see May as a non- BREXIT believer is the ‘ideal’ person who is best placed to keep the Country as much as possible in the European Union, and so deny the expressed will of the people, don’t you think?

At least May has shown the way forward to the other candidates by making plain that the status of EU immigrants WILL be part of the bargaining chips with Brussels. Many Tory MPs are thick enough to be upset about that, as they don’t seem to realise that in any negotiation both sides need to have something to bargain with, don’t they?

For a start, regarding any EU immigrants arriving here since the people’s verdict to leave the EU was secured on 23^rd June, NO such immigrants should have a right to stay here: furthermore if those in power at the EU, like ‘irremovable’ Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, embark on a revenge attack on Britain’s smooth exit from the EU, then they should be threatened with seeing millions of their citizens unceremoniously returned to their homelands forthwith, wouldn’t you say? If however they play ball with us, then we can grant all these immigrants a right to stay without having to individually applying and being adjudged on the advantages to the Country of their continued residence, perhaps?

However, you only have to analyse May’s supporters to establish that they are mainly the MPs (80% at least) who wanted us to remain in the EU and are still wishing to hold us there as much as possible, eh? It might be unsurprising then that the Establishment got out its remain MPs on track from the start – about 75% of them have emerged out of their Westminster worker-ant supercolony to support May, haven’t they?

By comparison the BREXIT supporting MPs have been much shyer in announcing their choices of Leader, so we can only know about who a little over half of them are committed to a candidate (60% of them). However, Andrea Leadsom has certainly been gaining momentum on the other leaver candidates, hasn’t she? Yep, she is slowly gaining ground in front of the other BREXIT candidates and is now already strides ahead, certainly?

Tonight’s ballot will though tell the UK’s population a lot more than deciding who the candidate who is to be eliminated – that by all accounts will be Liam Fox who was advise in this blog, not to stand (it is likely it will have blown his chances of a major Cabinet job?). We know that May will be a mile ahead, but we will also see where the ‘leaver’ MPs are going to focus their support, as they are all likely to vote, don’t you think? That initial verdict will determine the future of securing a full exit from the EU, won’t it? It is quite possible that some other candidates will withdraw tonight to avoid an ignominious defeat in the next two potential ballots?

It is clear that Stephen Crabb has shot his bolt and won’t be going much further, so he may go, as he has established himself as a possible leader for the future, which really was his objective, eh? We might expect both Leadson and Michael Gove to carry-on to the next ballot regardless, as they each are likely to get substantially more votes than have been committed prior to the first ballot, but nowhere near May (who could even take half the MP electorate, eh?), wouldn’t you agree?

[In only a few hours time the die will be cast, won’t it?]