STANDING:         Stephen Crabb: Liam Fox: Michael Gove: Andrea Leadsom: Theresa May

FORCAST: Theresa May v Andrea Leadsom

[Red = voted Remain            Blue = voted Leave]

Well, well, the Tory MPs have their first ballot of the leadership beauty contest in just a couple of days time (Tuesday). They didn’t waste any time at all in stacking the cards, did they? No, the ones of influence decided that Theresa May was the man to back (sorry woman) so to intimidate the others, they organised immediate public exposure of a massive tranche of MPs who committed to support her – five times the number of any other candidate, no less. She has so many ‘so called supporters’ that as it stands she will walk unabated into the final pair of candidates to be offered to the little band of only one-hundred-and-fifty thousand Conservative Party members, who will decide on the Prime Minister of a nation of some fifty million voters – that’s what you call ‘unaccountable power’, don’t you think? However, that is the current unacceptable system so no good moaning about it if one can’t change it just now, is there?

If May is subsequently selected, she will have no public mandate, and indeed from the referendum decision by the ordinary public NO KIND OF VALID MANDATE whatsoever, nevertheless she would become our Prime Minister for four years, as she has already admitted that she will NOT seek a mandate by calling a General Election – is that any surprise then when you know that politicians will do to get and hang onto power, eh?

You see, the Tory MPs determined to keep this Country under the yoke of the EU somewhat outnumber the ones in favour of BREXIT, don’t they? Yep, they have the extra number of more than 35 MPs and they intend to make that count, don’t they?

Did you think that the MPs would learn the lesson when their constituents demonstrated to them that they were out of touch, by the people voting to leave the EU? Did you think that a large number of these MPs would switch and deliver the expressed wishes of their electorate – well dream on, eh? They are going to dash your hopes and the bulk will stick with their remain intentions (currently only a dozen are supporting BREXIT candidates, while one-and-a half-dozen Leave MPs have gone the other way and are now supporting remain candidates – that is the power of personal ambition for you, eh?)

When May announced she was entering the arena, she claimed she was standing on ‘her record’ – not really a good idea if you look at it, is it? Like her abject failure to deliver the Government’s commitment on reducing immigration to ‘tens of thousands’, when in fact it reached its highest levels ever (and is indeed certainly double what is admitted?), or boasting of extradition of a hate inciting immigrant that took her some five years to get it done and cost a small fortune, eh? In reality her record is in fact actually ‘surviving ‘as Home Secretary for so long in a role that is traditionally a death row job in the UK, isn’t it?

While less than half the Tory BREXIT MPs have aligned themselves yet with any candidate, the opposite side have some sixty-five percent of their MPs who have already crawled out of the woodwork.

As was predicted here, as being not a credible contestant, Liam Fox is languishing well behind everybody with less than ten MPs supporting, so it can be expected to be out on his ear on Tuesday, don’t you think? The others are not yet showing their hands and have only little more than a couple of dozen MPs visibly backing them (despite the fact that they need to treble that to be sure of going through to next ballot round), when May has over a hundred indeed. We are perhaps likely to see a bit of skulduggery in the second ballot on Thursday next week, when May could ‘lend’ a shed load of HER supporters, she doesn’t need at this stage, to a fellow remainer, who just now is going nowhere yet in terms of support, Stephen Crabb, to her engineering getting shot of either Michael Gove, or Andrea Leadsom from the BREXIT camp, eh? Gove may well have scuppered Boris Johnson (and for perfectly understandable reasons too, as he was backsliding, wasn’t he?), but in the process he may have scuppered himself, as he is now being labelled as a power hungry backstabber, which he is certainly really  NOT, is he?

The BREXIT underdog tribe in the Conservative MP ranks will have their vote split while the other side will not, so it is difficult to believe, as originally hoped, that both Gove and Leadsom will now get to be in the pair offered to the local Tory constituencies, particularly in light of the current ascendancy of May, don’t you think? Then it will all come down to the unpredictable decisions of the local parties to determine who will be the Prime Minister in a couple of month’s time, won’t it?

We can’t yet see the wood for the trees, as who is going to be selected as the main BREXIT’s ‘nomination’ to take on May, because the anti EU MPs are uncharacteristically hiding their light under a bushel, aren’t they?

Oh yes, those determined to keep a Remainer in power at the top, now don’t actually want to follow the rules and proceed with the Leader’s election, seeing that they want May simply ‘crowned, consequently they want ALL the other candidates to immediately ‘withdraw’ – a fat chance of getting away with that, don’t you think?

If you live in any of these constituencies listed here below, and want this Country to really exit the EU, you might sway the decision by over the next few months demonstrating that fact to the Conservative Party HQ in your area:

THE BIGGEST ‘OUT’ CONSTITUENCES with an ‘IN’ voting MP are: Aldridge-Brownhills, Bexleyheath and Crayford, Boston and Skegness, Cannock Chase, Erewash, Great Yarmouth, Halesowen and Rowley Regis, Louth and Horncastle, Nuneaton, Staffordshire Moorlands, Hornchurch and Upminster, Old Bexley and Sidcup, South West Norfolk, Waveney, West Suffolk,

and the others where the MP is IN voting are: Aberconwy, Arundel and South Downs, Ashford, Aylesbury, Banbury, Basingstoke, Bath, Battersea, Beaconsfield, Bedfordshire North East, Beverley and Holderness, Brighton Kemptown, Broadland, Bromley and Chislehurst, Bromsgrove, Bognor Regis and Littlehampton, Bosworth, Bournemouth East, Bracknell, Brentwood and Ongar, Burton, Bury St Edmunds, Calder Valley, Cambridgeshire South, Cambridgeshire South East, Cardiff North, Carlisle, Carmarthen W and S Pembrokeshire, Central, Charnwood, Cheadle, Chelmsford, Cheltenham, Chichester, Chippenham, Cities of London and Westminster, Crewe and Nantwich, Croydon Central, Croydon South, Devizes, Devon Central, Devon North, Derby North, Derbyshire Dales, Devon South West, Dorset North, Dover, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, East Devon, Eddisbury, Elmet and Rothwell, Faversham and Mid Kent, Finchley and Golders Green, Folkestone and Hythe, Fylde, Gloucester, Gosport, Gower, Grantham and Stamford, Hampshire East, Harborough, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Hastings and Rye, Havant, Henley, Hertford and Stortford, Hertfordshire NE, Hertsmere, Hexham, Horsham, Huntingdon, Ipswich, Keighley, Kingston and Surbiton, Kingswood, Loughborough, Ludlow, Luke Hall, Macclesfield, Maidenhead, Maidstone and The Weald, Meon Valley, Meriden, Mid-Sussex, Milton Keynes North, Mole Valley, Morecombe and Lunesdale, Newark, Newbury, Norfolk Mid, Northampton North, Northampton South, North West Cambridgeshire, Northwood and Pinner, Norwich North, Orpington, Oxford West and Abingdon, Penrith and The Border, Plymouth Moor View, Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Portsmouth South, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Putney, Reading East, Reading West, Rochester and Strood, Romsey and Southampton North, Rossendale and Darwen, Rugby, Ruislip, Runnymede and Weybridge,Rushcliffe, Rutland and Melton, Saffron Walden, Salisbury, Scarborough and Whitby, Sevenoaks, Sherwood, Skipton and Ripon, Solihull, South Leicestershire, South Ribble, South West Bedfordshire, South West Hertfordshire, South West Surrey, Stafford, Staffordshire South, Suffolk, Suffolk Coastal, Suffolk South, Stourbridge, Stroud, Surrey East, Sutton Coldfield, Swindon South, Tatton, Taunton Deane, Thanet North, The Wrekin, Thirsk and Malton, Thurrock, Tiverton and Honiton, Tonbridge and Malling, Torbay, Totnes, Truro and Falmouth, Tunbridge Wells, Twickenham, Vale of Glamorgan, Wantage, Warrington South, Warwick and Leamington, Watford, Weaver Vale, Wells, Welwyn Hatfield, West Dorset, Weston-super-Mare, Wimbledon, Winchester, Worcester, Worcestershire Mid., Worcestershire West, Worthing West, Wyre and Preston North, Wyre Forest,

[The situation as seen by Dadman007 just now]