The Conservatives’ Leadership National Chase 2016 –the Winner’s Cup and the UK Prime MinisterTrophy? THE RUNNERS

therace

June 30, 2016

RUNNERS:          Michael Gove; Liam Fox; Andrea Leadsom; Stephen Crabb; Theresa May

ANALASYS & TIPS:      SEE MAIN BLOG BELOW

RACE:                  Starts next Tuesday July 5th July

Well, the Clerk of the Course announced the declared Runners this morning, and to the complete amazement of the punters the favourite had been withdrawn overnight.

Bookies favourite Boris Johnson gave a lengthy spoof candidacy TV press conference announcement before the deadline and delivered with immaculate punchline timing, the non-joke that he was actually NOT running.

It would appear that the trainer’s decision to also run his stablemate Michael Gove, because Johnson seemed likely to succumb to mud fever, had unsettled the stallion, caused him to sweat, resulting in a high temperature, a cough and common cold, leading to his immediate and unexpected withdrawal.

As history might have warned us though,  the Tories have form and always coral the perceived favourite, in exactly these types of circumstances, don’t they?

In the parade Ring now

Running on the good going BEXIT side if the track

Michael Gove –he will probably not emerge as the new favourite, but as an establishment favoured entry and a major player in the successful BREXIT trial can be expected to feature in the final straight’s run to the post by the strongest two runners, don’t you think?

Liam Foxno likelihood of coming first or even gaining second place, so don’t bet on him either way, will you? Running for publicity to get back into government, but may have made a mistake in running as he will suffer the consequences if he baulks the winner at all point during the race, perhaps?

Andrea Leadsom – high quality and very watchable, furthermore has waited for exactly the right moment to enter the parade ring. Very steady, will be difficult to deal with on a run-in because of all that appropriate experience outside parliament which the others don’t have, and as one of the most proactive in BREXIT. Has nothing to lose by running, and simply dependant on how others react to her sprint capability – certainly unlikely to go out on the first or second ballot, surely?

Carrying excessive weight and racing on Remain’s clogged-up going

Stephen Crabb – first out of the paddock and into the ring, a promising no hoper but just out for a training gallop this time to test him for this major race when its run in the future, wouldn’t you say?

Theresa May – has suddenly become the bookies overwhelming favourite, but is running here solely on the reputation of her experience and staying power, nevertheless she is handicapped in at the last minute choosing the wrong side of the track in the Referendum stakes, and by coming out of the stable of Home Secretary, which has a long standing reputation of causing colic – which surprisingly she has largely avoided, though at times has shown its symptoms of being downright restless, elevated hysteria, and unusually irritable.

Perhaps she has been nobbled with sedating ACP dope from the NHS by toxic Jeremy Hunt announcing that he has decided NOT to stand himself but will be supporting her?

In reality, she could be even vying to get into the finishing straight with new challenger Leadsom for the run-in on long home finishing straight against Gove to the winning line, wouldn’t you say?

—oOo—

June 26th 2016

Following PM David Cameron’s self-inflicted demise, the Tory’s have a pretty short timescale to find a stand-in replacement from a standing start, wouldn’t you say? You see Cameron wants to go and get it done and dusted before the Conservatives annual conference in just over three months time and that is a tall order as it has come out of the blue so to speak, isn’t it?

Many were surprised that Cameron has gone, but indeed it was predicted in these very blogs a very-very long while ago that he would do so, win or lose the Referendum. You see, lazyitus & holiday loving Cameron had done the thing with being PM, got the tee-shirt, and wanted to take over from Tony Blair on the world’s stage to make a similar sixty millions fortune, eh? [blue-chip company advisor, conference public speaker, international business consultant, envoy, overseas government advisor, etcetera].

Just remember this warning now that the Remain herd are bad losers, so are going cause as much mayhem as possible within the Party , starting with the election of a new leader, don’t you think?

Firstly to find a new leader, the Tory MPs have to weed-out the ordinary nags from the thoroughbreds in the pre-race parade ring and select to run just two candidates from amongst themselves – and that would be problematic, don’t you think? We might expect there to be a number of serious runners in this Leader National Chase, as well as some dark horses from minor stables, eh?

Secondly, the selected duo has to be offered to the wider membership to give the cup to one and send the other to the knacker’s yard– that is a painful outcome for the loser, isn’t it?

It depends naturally on when the process starts as set by the clerk of the course 1933 Committee, but the timeline could be say a couple of weeks to secure nominations for the field, another couple of weeks for a first/second ballot, plus one further week for a final ballot – so the required 2 candidates could be selected by the end of July?

Then there would be a postal ballot of the membership which one would expect to take well over a month, so with a following wind we could see a new Conservative leader by mid-September , giving the ‘chosen-one’ a couple of weeks to rehearse their Conference speech, wouldn’t it?

Experience though tells us that the initial frontrunner in such an election process doesn’t always turn out to be the eventual winner, doesn’t it?

So who are the potential runners then and which of them will actually be declared or withdrawn before the off, do you think? The winner HAS surely to be someone from the eurosceptic ranks, who will carry the distinct advantage of credibly being able to negotiate the spooked UK’s bolting out from the EU? That though will shorten the field dramatically and could inject a few surprise entrants, so we might see a previously publically unknown name first at the post, eh?

How about this lot named below, then?

Some of the ones who worth a big punt or at least a two-way bet, and who run on the good going LEAVE side of the track?

Michael Gove –he is a ‘shyer’ but if he can be led reluctantly from the paddock onto the course he will be a formidable and strong runner racehorse, as before supporting BREXIT he has been a power behind the throne, including being a close friend of both thoroughbred Cameron & his stablemate Osborne, so he could well make it into the final furlong and then the winners enclosure, don’t you think? [You see Cameron will have a direct influence on who succeeds him – you’d better believe it?]

Liam Foxhe will dearly  love the opportunity to get into the starting stalls, but he ran last time and hit the second fence ballot by suspected skulduggery – will he risk running for a second time only to be pulled-up again, do you think? Perhaps his top strategy would be to support the winning runner and then obtain the best he can hope for, which is to resume the cabinet career race he badly fell in, when misjudging personal behaviour at the lobby fence.

Boris Johnson – a warhorse so certainly he will be amongst the declared runners, and decidedly the initial front runner, he is the charismatic intellectual who yet plays the buffoon. He is a former two term mayor of London who has image-wise fronted the Leave charge and perhaps he could be the most credited with achieving the final decision from the Nation? However, he is not rated highly by fellow MPs, as he has poor ministerial form, and is seen more as a free roaming wild mustang rather than the dominant stallion to lead the herd, plus there is a undeniable risk of him being subject of revenge nobbling by the angered Remain MPs They will desperately try to block him from getting into the two horse finishing straight, as they know that his impressive popularity in the Country’s grass roots will ensure he ultimately streaks ahead in the finishing straight and wins without the stewards requiring a photo finish judgement, don’t you think?

Andrea Leadsom – although of limited form record and inexplicably not yet a cabinet minister, she broke though the field by an amazing surging run with a controlled intellectual starring role in Referendum debates and discussions. She is an outsider who has all the qualities required for a modern day Conservative leader and that would appeal to political race voters far and wide, seeing that she is articulate, strong minded, understands finance and the economy, and moreover is not an old Etonian, Oxford graduate , nor an acclaimed ex-member of the Bullingdon Club. Her problems will be that she is not yet senior enough amongst MPs, would out-jump more experience runners and possibly straight into the Premier’s job -what is more, are the Tories ready to drop the reigns and give its head to another filly having experience Maggie Thatcher, eh?

Jacob Rees-Mogg – a privileged rebellious thorn in the side of the PM and a good speaker, but suffers from an incurable condition of being an establishment figure, Old Etonian and Oxford graduate to boot (but not President of the Union – oh dear?). He is a bit of a loose cannon who would certainly make PMQ’s a bit of enjoyable fun if at the dispatch box, but he is not likely to be a runner so don’t bet on him, despite his long odds?

Priti Patel – as for this Employment Minister, this mare was one of the troop of six who trotted out of Cameron’s Referendum cabinet meeting and straight into a BREXIT meeting, so she has a feisty spirit, doesn’t she?. Seeing that she is a major minister, a big supporter of female power, seeks enhanced links with India, and particularly as she is seen as anti-establishment (which goes down well in the Tory heartland), all that might give her wide support in the country, but would she really carry sufficient authority within the commons paddock, do you think?

Dominic Raabwithout doubt still a fairly obscure public face despite his pack horse substantive efforts back at the Leave stables, but nevertheless he could be used as a Trojan to stop Johnson, couldn’t he?

Dadman007’s Selections:               Gove and Leadsom

The ones NOT to put your money on the nose for, as they are carrying excessive weight and racing on Remain’s clogged-up going?

Stephen Crabb – in the colours of Work and Pensions is a promising bearded Welsh colt from a humble stable, but if he runs here has the handicap that he is not experienced over the type of fences that will be encountered in this his first major race, and will probably suffer a fall an open ditch.

Philip Hammond – his undoubted political run of luck has run out if he ever fancied racing for the top job, not least because under the colours of foreign secretary he has been particularly scathing of BREXIT and its leaders, and he has even unnecessarily resurrected his bile against the winners – his race time is up and his career is heading for the knackers yard, don’t you think?

Sajid Javid – has been inconsistent over the BREXIT course and has subsequently jumped badly over the Tata fence which may have left him with a bad strain that will affect him in this race, which otherwise he would have had a good chance in, as he has been well trained on the financial gallops, and he has emerged with credit from an unfashionable yard. A good chance of being a runner and doing well in the first furlong.

Theresa May – the battered home secretary though a bit of a hack now, would certainly have been one of the favourites before the referendum debate run, but as a suspected committed eurosceptic who switched from that side over to the remain rails, she has broken down in that latest trial, so while she might run she will end up lengths behind, don’t you think? She may well though still retain her current longstanding mare’s stall in the government stables, as she has been a reliable performer on her day, hasn’t she?

Nicky Morgan had a right night-mare run in the education secretary stakes, and really can’t rely on that performance to get her a run here, can she? She has always has ambitions to walk into the winners enclosure, but normalness, a liability to get jostled off course, coupled with a being of the privileged classes, escaping from the devious legal profession into politics, and having an Oxbridge background , doesn’t overcome lack of form when hoping to be selected for a major chase, does it?

George Osborne – has been standing behind the off- for years waiting to be called forward by the starter, but when the moment unexpectedly arrived he was incapacitated (had broken his leg with his dire behaviour in the Referendum campaign, wouldn’t you say?).It is highly unlikely now that he will be a declared runner or even be fit enough to retain his stall in the chancellor’s stables, as unsadly he will have to be put down, eh?

Amber Rudd – up her own arse, bit of a bronco, vitriolic, anti BREXIT, running in the silks of energy secretary, certainly got the headlines by a disgraceful personal attack on cabinet colleague Boris Johnson in a TV debate, but such oblique cleverness and balking won’t get her into the horsebox heading for the racecourse, will it?

————————–ooo————————–

After the race Leader Cup is duly handed over in a few months time, there will still remain the question of the Trophy of Prime Minister. Can the Cup winner really expect to also collect that as well in the post race parade ring, when they will have no personal mandate from the General Public, when the Conservative Party were elected with a different leader under a totally different set of circumstances, when the Government operates with a tiny majority and have been demonstrably shown to be out of out of touch and unsupported by the electorate?

Surely, there HAS to be a General Election BEFORE there is a new PRIME MINISTER?

 

[This party leadership election will make a major historic impact on Britain’s future, without doubt?]

 

 

 

 

 

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