US Presidential nominations 2016 – was Wisconsin Primary a pointer?

 

REPUBLICAN

  republicanconvention2012  verses   democrateconvention2012 DEMOCRATIC CONVENTIONS

 

Well, well, well the Wisconsin Primary has proven to be just as interesting as we had hoped, both on the Democrat and the Republican sides, hasn’t it?

For the Democrats Bernie Sanders needed to show his mettle in Wisconsin and carry through in this Primary on his recent trouncing of Hillary Clinton in recent States’ primaries and caucuses, if he was to have any hope of eating significantly into her massive lead in already secured pledged delegates. But he couldn’t do it, could he? No, he certainly won the State as had been commonly predicted, but there was no landside for him here, despite a massive spending spree all the other Presidential contenders could only dream of. So Sanders got nearly half the Democratic vote, but did though only secure just over a dozen more delegates than Clinton, while she was clearly beaten but nevertheless simply added a further thirty more towards her total delegate count that would give her the Democrat nomination – that is all she has to keep doing to see-off her rival, isn’t it?

On the other hand, Sanders will feel he has done enough to stay in the race, and go on to fight for the bigger prize of New York in a couple of weeks’ time. In reality though he has to beat Clinton there by a huge margin to have any real change of denying her the nomination – and that is a BIG ask since it is her adopted State that she had represented as a Senator in Congress for eight years before becoming for four years President Obama’s Secretary of State. Sanders has done his cause a great disservice earlier this week in a newspaper interview where he showed scant understanding of foreign policy affairs and made the faux-pas of adamantly claiming that he used New York’s subway regularly only to get caught-out on how he pays – he said ‘a token’ which was last in use a dozen years ago (a mistake that will put a serious dent in his credibility as the one who is the most trusted, eh?). Sanders will now need to win some sixty percent of all remaining pledged delegates to finish a winner. The bulk of the remaining Democrat delegates are provided by New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, California, and New Jersey, where Clinton’s star is currently in the ascendancy. Just a good show in New York next week will make Clinton not only an odds-on bet for the Democrat nomination, but she will be a clear favourite for President, as she will be up against a poor Republican opponent whoever gets that nomination.

Democratdeligates6 Democratdeligates%6

The charts above show that Hillary Clinton needs only half the votes of her rival Bernie Sanders and holds a thirty percent lead over him, and all that could be decisive very soon, don’t you think?

On the other side of the fence, the Republican voters in Wisconsin perhaps gave the hint of things to come, didn’t they? Donald Trump, the man who was only weeks ago universally being described as ‘unbeatable’, was not quite humiliated by another unconvincing second place behind Ted Cruz, who seized the crown there, while the other Republican candidate still in the running, John Kasich, languished well behind them both – surely Kasich has to give up? Does this all mean that the Trump bubble has finally burst? Does this all mean the traditional genuine Republicans have had enough of loudmouth Trump who has tried to hijack their Party and railroad it into propelling him into national politics as a Presidential candidate? Does this all mean that his anti-establishment, anti-politics, non-politically correct rhetoric and opinions, have been utterly rejected? Does it all mean that his populist but vile controversial outbursts that brought him such astounding support from the American lowlife, have finally hit the buffers and has run its course at last, eh? One might hope so, perhaps? Anyway by gaining well over thirty delegates, Cruz continues to inspire confidence that he can gradually claw his way back into contention against Trump, who only picked-up a few extra delegates here in this State with a lack luster campaign.

As might be expected Trump was an astoundingly bad loser, poring vitriol on Cruz’s victory and accusing him of all kinds of misdeeds – no congratulatory or concessional words from him. then? Nevertheless, Trump is still expected to win well in his home ground State of New York, so is still the bookies’ favourite to go to the Republican National Convention in July as the one out in front,  but now probably having to fight a contested Convention nomination (with the traditional Party avidly against him there).

Republicandelegates6 Republicandelegates%6

These above summary charts indicate that Donald Trump still needs half as many delegates again as he has now and if his train is really slowing down he is not going to make it a triumphant win, is he? In percentage terms Cruz is creeping towards him which will be a big worry for his campaign – as is evident from his current pronouncements, perhaps?

 

 

 

–ooOoo–

 

[The World is clearly very much paying attention to who just might be the next US President. Britain has particular concerns as well, because it has had a long-term predominantly close relationship with America

 usaflags           Seal_of_the_President_of_the_United_States_svgThe President of the United States

 

 

 

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