REPUBLICAN

    verses    DEMOCRATIC CONVENTIONS

Today Tuesday is pretty well a crunch day for both Democrat & Republican US Presidential potential nominees isn’t it? Yep, there are primaries taking place in Arizona, Utah, and Idaho. Now these are not normally seen as ‘critical’ contests in the Presidential nominations, but this year they do have special significance because they could well point the way forward for all – that is why the leading Democrat and Republican combatants — Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz — have campaigned with great intensity across these States (some prepared to spend millions of pounds into the bargain – what a bleeding waste, eh?).

The banker here, and prize of the day, is really Arizona (85 Democratic, and 58 Republican delegates), as there are many delegates up for grabs and for Republicans it is a ‘winner takes-all’ contest. For front-runners Hillary Clinton (Democrat) and Donald Trump (Republican), a straight outright Arizona win could deliver a decisive victory notch in their shootouts for their parties’ respective nominations.

Democrat Sanders certainly needs Arizona if he is to start an effective comeback against Clinton, who not only soundly defeated him last week in Florida, but is well ahead in obtaining the delegates needed for success so seeking for the party to coalesce around her candidacy. Clinton will however be tough to beat there, is well ahead in the polls and certainly she has after all a good track record from the last time – when she beat Obama in the State. Is the nomination now outside Sanders’ reach?

Sanders is increasingly being seen as just another nice guy unsuited to the vileness of American politics, not least because he is so principled in his political philosophy, and that doesn’t make you a winner in that kind of environment, does it? He could do well in Utah though (37 delegates), but as the spoils are awarded proportionally there, he could well win without making a significant dent in Clinton’s lead with just an extra ten or fifteen or so banked.

Also, desperately needing a comeback here is Republican John Kasich, who was given the kiss of life by unexpectedly defeating Trump in Ohio (to show that it can be done), but is nevertheless trailing a poor third in his own race for the nomination, and is still a long way off the pace in Arizona.

As for Cruz, encouraged after his North Carolina performance, a win in Arizona would help enormously to cement his status as the only serious alternative to Trump, wouldn’t it? But given his rivals early advantage can his ‘stop Trump’ attempt really work?

Moreover, Trump who has big name political allies in Arizona is in the poll lead (though with many still undecided), well ahead of Cruz, and if victorious on the day, he will seize all the State’s 58 delegates, which would surge him forward at a very important time in his quest for the nomination at the July Convention. Cruz is particularly scathing about Trump who he sees as a disaster for the Party so has to be beaten before reaching the Convention

When it comes to Utah it may be a different story, as Trump looks to be the one well behind, so we could see a very decisive victory for Cruz there and if he gets half the vote he will waltz off with all 40 Republican delegates – that will be a great psychological boost for him, and would certainly seriously damage Trump’s “I am a winner” image, won’t it?

For the Republicans there is a lot to play for between March 22 and April 19, with New York (winner-take-most) the largest State at 95 and Arizona (winner-take-all) with 58. Wisconsin has 42 delegate votes and this could be a trend indicator state.

So coming up:

Tuesday, March 22                                        republican   democrat  

American Samoa Republican convention     9                                       unbound

Arizona                                                           58                 85                winner –take-all/proportional

Idaho Democratic caucus                                             27                                            /winner –take-all

Idaho Republican primary                    32                                       winner –take-most/

Utah                                                                40                 37                delegates proportional

Saturday, March 26

Alaska Democratic caucus                                          20

Hawaii Democratic caucus                                          34

Washington Democratic caucus                                118

Tuesday, April 5

Wisconsin                                                       42                 96                winner –take-all

Saturday, April 9

Wyoming Democratic caucus                                            18

Tuesday, April 19

New York                                                       95                 291              delegates proportional

Totals                                                              244               726

 

 

 

 

 

 

–ooOoo–

 

[The World is clearly very much paying attention to who just might be the next US President. Britain has particular concerns as well, because it has had a long-term predominantly close relationship with America

            The President of the United States