Dadman007′s General Election prediction is based on the opinion that Labour will hang on to their current level of support, but that the Conservatives’ star will fade before the Election. What do YOU think? [Get your own prediction done?].
Such a scenario has been run through a major predictor website and it doesn’t show a hung parliament as the pundits say, but actually an outright win for Labour’s Ed Miliband and with UKIP languishing badly – surprised or shocked if that actually happens?
Bit of fun really – don’t take it too seriously will you?
Dadman007 & National Prediction: LAB majority 52
| Party | 2010 Votes | 2010 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Pred Seats |
| CON | 37.0% | 307 | 30.0% | 24 | 74 | 257 |
| LAB | 29.7% | 258 | 35.0% | 93 | 0 | 351 |
| LIB | 23.6% | 57 | 6.0% | 0 | 46 | 11 |
| UKIP | 3.2% | 0 | 15.0% | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| NAT | 2.3% | 9 | 2.3% | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| MIN | 0.9% | 19 | 0.9% | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| OTH | 3.5% | 0 | 10.9% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
List of predicted seat changes
| TableColumnFormat(‘llcccl’) Seat | County/Area | Predicted Change | MP as at 2010 | ||
| Aberconwy | Clwyd | LAB | gain from | CON | : Guto Bebb |
| Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Grampian | CON | gain from | LIB | : Sir Robert Smith |
| Amber Valley | Derbyshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Nigel Mills |
| Argyll and Bute | Argyll and Bute | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Alan Reid |
| Bedford | Bedfordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Richard Fuller |
| Bermondsey and Old Southwark | Southwark | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Simon Hughes |
| Berwick-upon-Tweed | Northumberland | CON | gain from | LIB | : Alan Beith |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | Borders | CON | gain from | LIB | : Michael Moore |
| Birmingham Yardley | Birmingham | LAB | gain from | LIB | : John Hemming |
| Blackpool North and Cleveleys | Lancashire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Paul Maynard |
| Bradford East | West Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | LIB | : David Ward |
| Brecon and Radnorshire | Powys | CON | gain from | LIB | : Roger Williams |
| Brent Central | Brent | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Sarah Teather |
| Brentford and Isleworth | Hounslow | LAB | gain from | CON | : Mary Macleod |
| Brighton Kemptown | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | CON | : Simon Kirby |
| Brighton Pavilion | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | MIN | : Caroline Lucas |
| Bristol North West | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | CON | : Charlotte Leslie |
| Bristol West | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Stephen Williams |
| Broxtowe | Nottinghamshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Anna Soubry |
| Burnley | Lancashire | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Gordon Birtwistle |
| Bury North | Western Manchester | LAB | gain from | CON | : David Nuttall |
| Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross | Highland | LAB | gain from | LIB | : John Thurso |
| Calder Valley | West Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Craig Whittaker |
| Cambridge | Cambridgeshire | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Julian Huppert |
| Cannock Chase | Staffordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Aidan Burley |
| Cardiff Central | South Glamorgan | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Jenny Willott |
| Cardiff North | South Glamorgan | LAB | gain from | CON | : Jonathan Evans |
| Carlisle | Cumbria | LAB | gain from | CON | : John Stevenson |
| Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South | Dyfed | LAB | gain from | CON | : Simon Hart |
| Carshalton and Wallington | Sutton | CON | gain from | LIB | : Tom Brake |
| Ceredigion | Dyfed | NAT | gain from | LIB | : Mark Williams |
| Cheadle | Eastern Manchester | CON | gain from | LIB | : Mark Hunter |
| Cheltenham | Gloucestershire | CON | gain from | LIB | : Martin Horwood |
| Chester, City of | Cheshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Stephen Mosley |
| Chippenham | Wiltshire | CON | gain from | LIB | : Duncan Hames |
| Clacton | Essex | UKIP | gain from | CON | : Douglas Carswell |
| Cleethorpes | Humber area | LAB | gain from | CON | : Martin Vickers |
| Colne Valley | West Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Jason McCartney |
| Corby | Northamptonshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Louise Bagshaw |
| Cornwall North | Cornwall | CON | gain from | LIB | : Dan Rogerson |
| Croydon Central | Croydon | LAB | gain from | CON | : Gavin Barwell |
| Dewsbury | West Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Simon Reevell |
| Dorset Mid and Poole North | Dorset | CON | gain from | LIB | : Annette Brooke |
| Dover | Kent | LAB | gain from | CON | : Charlie Elphicke |
| Dudley South | Black Country | LAB | gain from | CON | : Chris Kelly |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | Dumfries and Galloway | LAB | gain from | CON | : David Mundell |
| Dunbartonshire East | Glasgow area | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Jo Swinson |
| Ealing Central and Acton | Ealing | LAB | gain from | CON | : Angie Bray |
| Eastbourne | East Sussex | CON | gain from | LIB | : Stephen Lloyd |
| Eastleigh | Hampshire | CON | gain from | LIB | : Christopher Huhne |
| Edinburgh West | Edinburgh area | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Michael Crockart |
| Elmet and Rothwell | West Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Alec Shelbrooke |
| Enfield North | Enfield | LAB | gain from | CON | : Nick de Bois |
| Erewash | Derbyshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Jessica Lee |
| Fife North East | Fife | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Sir Menzies Campbell |
| Gloucester | Gloucestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Richard Graham |
| Gordon | Grampian | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Malcolm Bruce |
| Great Yarmouth | Norfolk | LAB | gain from | CON | : Brandon Lewis |
| Halesowen and Rowley Regis | Black Country | LAB | gain from | CON | : James Morris |
| Harrow East | Harrow | LAB | gain from | CON | : Bob Blackman |
| Hastings and Rye | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | CON | : Amber Rudd |
| Hazel Grove | Eastern Manchester | CON | gain from | LIB | : Andrew Stunell |
| Hendon | Barnet | LAB | gain from | CON | : Matthew Offord |
| High Peak | Derbyshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Andrew Bingham |
| Hornsey and Wood Green | Haringey | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Lynne Featherstone |
| Hove | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | CON | : Mike Weatherley |
| Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey | Highland | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Danny Alexander |
| Ipswich | Suffolk | LAB | gain from | CON | : Ben Gummer |
| Keighley | West Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Kris Hopkins |
| Kingston and Surbiton | Kingston Upon Thames | CON | gain from | LIB | : Edward Davey |
| Kingswood | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | CON | : Chris Skidmore |
| Lancaster and Fleetwood | Lancashire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Eric Ollerenshaw |
| Lincoln | Lincolnshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Karl McCartney |
| Loughborough | Leicestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Nicky Morgan |
| Manchester Withington | Central Manchester | LAB | gain from | LIB | : John Leech |
| Milton Keynes South | Buckinghamshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Iain Stewart |
| Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lancashire | LAB | gain from | CON | : David Morris |
| Northampton North | Northamptonshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Michael Ellis |
| Norwich North | Norfolk | LAB | gain from | CON | : Chloe Smith |
| Norwich South | Norfolk | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Simon Wright |
| Nuneaton | Warwickshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Marcus Jones |
| Orkney and Shetland | Orkney and Shetland | UKIP | gain from | LIB | : Alistair Carmichael |
| Pendle | Lancashire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Andrew Stephenson |
| Peterborough | Cambridgeshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Stewart Jackson |
| Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Devon | LAB | gain from | CON | : Oliver Colville |
| Preseli Pembrokeshire | Dyfed | LAB | gain from | CON | : Stephen Crabb |
| Pudsey | West Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Stuart Andrew |
| Redcar | Teesside | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Ian Swales |
| Ribble South | Lancashire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Lorraine Fullbrook |
| Ross Skye and Lochaber | Highland | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Charles Kennedy |
| Rossendale and Darwen | Lancashire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Jake Berry |
| Sherwood | Nottinghamshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Mark Spencer |
| Solihull | Coventry and Solihull | CON | gain from | LIB | : Lorely Burt |
| Somerset North East | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | CON | : Jacob Rees-Mogg |
| Somerton and Frome | Somerset | CON | gain from | LIB | : David Heath |
| Southport | Merseyside | CON | gain from | LIB | : John Pugh |
| St Austell and Newquay | Cornwall | CON | gain from | LIB | : Stephen Gilbert |
| St Ives | Cornwall | CON | gain from | LIB | : Andrew George |
| Stafford | Staffordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Jeremy Lefroy |
| Stevenage | Hertfordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Stephen McPartland |
| Stockton South | Teesside | LAB | gain from | CON | : James Wharton |
| Stourbridge | Black Country | LAB | gain from | CON | : Margot James |
| Stroud | Gloucestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Neil Carmichael |
| Sutton and Cheam | Sutton | CON | gain from | LIB | : Paul Burstow |
| Swindon South | Wiltshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Robert Buckland |
| Taunton Deane | Somerset | CON | gain from | LIB | : Jeremy Browne |
| Thurrock | Essex | LAB | gain from | CON | : Jackie Doyle-Price |
| Torbay | Devon | CON | gain from | LIB | : Adrian Sanders |
| Twickenham | Richmond Upon Thames | CON | gain from | LIB | : Vincent Cable |
| Vale of Glamorgan | South Glamorgan | LAB | gain from | CON | : Alun Cairns |
| Warrington South | Cheshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : David Mowat |
| Warwick and Leamington | Warwickshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Chris White |
| Warwickshire North | Warwickshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Dan Byles |
| Watford | Hertfordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Richard Harrington |
| Waveney | Suffolk | LAB | gain from | CON | : Peter Aldous |
| Weaver Vale | Cheshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Graham Evans |
| Wells | Somerset | CON | gain from | LIB | : Tessa Munt |
| Wirral West | Merseyside | LAB | gain from | CON | : Esther McVey |
| Wolverhampton South West | Black Country | LAB | gain from | CON | : Paul Uppal |
| Worcester | Hereford and Worcestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Robin Walker |
| Wyre Forest | Hereford and Worcestershire | MIN | gain from | CON | : Mark Garnier |
The MP listed is as at the general election in 2010 and may not be that party’s candidate at the next election.
The data above has been obtained from ‘Electoral Calculus’
Electoral Calculus predicts the next British General Election result using scientific analysis of opinion polls and electoral geography.
We have been making election predictions for twenty years, and were the most accurate pre-poll predictor at the last General Election in May 2010.
ramblings007 