His moment of truth was his threatening stance over Syria when he postulated a ‘red line’ that would invoke decisive American intervention. When he then failed to act, and was neutralised by the much more astute Russian President Putin, his stature & influence was disestablished forever – he was a simply a threatener who could be ignored and out manoeuvred. Russia was unassailably in the clear to tweak his nose whenever the need arose (Russia had already gotten away with their incursion militarily into Georgia)
The current Ukraine situation developed from a small embryo and has grown into a grownup monster. The Russians were determined that their ex-satellite would not get closer to Europe and the non-communist West. OK Russia had lost the global power battle fifteen years ago when the break-up of the USSR took place, but the Russians are a very determined and resilient race and still unreservedly nasty with it. Democracy and human rights aren’t cornerstones of their way of life, and never will be. They have lost their right to be classified as a ‘superpower’, but despite their country’s fragile nature now, they can still strut around the World’s stage causing mayhem wherever they can – any destruction of Western life and values is seized upon ruthlessly.
The naive little Ukrainians thought they could take to the streets to change their destiny – but they underestimated the Russians. To the outside World it all began with the then incumbent President of Ukraine and his cronies thwarting an opportunity to form a trade relationship with the European Union, and deciding instead to solidify ties with Russia. The general population were aghast at the potential opportunity lost to obtain Western style lifestyles and freedoms which could emanate from closer contacts with the other countries in Europe. Demonstrations progressively expanded to express general anger about what they saw as a corrupt regime (a clone of Russia’s) that was ruining and impoverishing the country while enriching the selected ones.
To the surprise of most of the World the pitiful Ukrainians faced up to their empowered masters, outfaced them, out-courage them, and died in front of them. Unbelievably, their opponents capitulated and the incumbent President ran away with his devil’s tail between his legs. And the rest of the World who had stood by on the sidelines, helpless, and transfixed? Just breathed a totally ridiculous and inappropriate but audible sigh of relief!
Oh yes this was a coup – be of no doubt about that! But it wasn’t a political or military coup as normally experienced – no, it was a coup by the ordinary people demanding their rights. Their downfall however was that they were simply naïve – that means coup inexperienced, immature politically, adolescent in foreign relationships, green behind the ears, raw in preparations, youthful in ambitions, unsophisticated in approach.
One doesn’t have to be a coup expert, or even a renowned historian, to know the FIRST rule of a coup – it is that you have to disenfranchise the existing powers that be; traditionally this is done by capturing the figurehead(s) and locking them away (and in extreme cases eliminating them). And the Ukrainians? Despite obvious opportunities to frustrate it, they allowed the incumbent President to escape – and worse still, flee into the safe haven of his friends in Russia, where his presence could be manipulated against the newly formed Government. One can only feel sorry for the poor souls in Ukraine involved in the process.
There was no way that the Russians would accept a situation that could develop to having a NATO member on their doorstep. Russia has massive military might, so it used it effectively and immediately deployed their forces in parts of Ukraine – why didn’t the West’s military strategists guess that one coming then?. Obama is incensed of course and is on the bandwagon again with the usual denunciation rhetoric. Make no mistake about it, Putin is in control of this match – no one can second guess his end game plan, but one thing for sure is that he won’t be outplayed by Obama.
Oh yes, Britain, a nuclear power, is in their as well – our war of words against Russia are and will be mesmerising. The British Armed Forces are the fourth biggest military force, in terms of spend, in the World (despite as a maritime nation having no aircraft carriers!) – coming behind only USA, China, and Russia, but it won’t be mobilising any resources on this one. America & Britain are amongst those countries who choose to use their might against only the non powerful enemy.
Oh dear, Britain was also principally complicit in letting the Syrian population down and abandoning them to the cruellest of fates (total inaction together with the UN and the rest of the World’s countries). Another four thousand or so killed already this year. As predicted in an earlier post the Syrian regime has, with the aid of the Russians, reneged on commitments to give up their chemical weapons (note: illegal stuff they had always denied having or using). Assad has missed all the agreed deadlines and has given up only a few percent of their thousands of tons of the killer chemical arsenal. Hardly surprising that Ukraine didn’t figure highly is it?
[And the United Nations – charged with stopping wars and military foreign incursions? Relaxing gracefully and impotent as normal – particularly where US, Russian & China’s interests or involvements are concerned. Sleep Well Everybody!]